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Author(s): 

AHMAD RAED ALI

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2013
  • Volume: 

    15
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    1-13
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    391
  • Downloads: 

    274
Abstract: 

In this paper, the well-established probabilistic SEISMIC HAZARD - Poisson occurrence model - technique is applied to estimate the SEISMIC severity of Syrian region.Syrian SEISMIC catalog, which extends from 19 AD to 2012, as well as seismotectonic features of the region have been utilized. The SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT carried out using eight SEISMIC active zones based on tectonic settings and spatial distribution of the SEISMIC activity. We assessed the modified Gutenberg-Richter Model parameters and the maximum credible earthquake magnitude for each SEISMIC zone.Suitable numeric attenuation models have been used for the considered SEISMIC zones. An increment of 0.1x 0.1 degree is used. The SEISMIC HAZARD maps are developed for return periods (50, 100, 175, 475 and 975 years) and for the seven structural periods. Integrating PGA to PSA HAZARD maps have done based on site-effect factors of PSA/PGA. SEISMIC HAZARD curves are obtained for all major cities. Relatively high levels of PGA as well as PSA are found in regions: Lebanese part of DSFS, Al-Ghab region of Syria, along the border of Turkey and Bitilis zone. Remarkable SEISMICity has noticed in the eastern part of Syria.

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Journal: 

JOURNAL OF THE EARTH

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2008
  • Volume: 

    3
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    71-80
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2119
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

This paper presents a probabilistic HAZARD ASSESSMENT of Ilam region in Zagros mountain, western Iran.Zagros is one of the most SEISMICally active parts of Alpine-Himalayan SEISMIC belt. We got a catalogue containing historical and instrumental, complete for magnitudes greater 4. To account for SEISMICity of regions near Ilam, area under study was extended and fault map then seismotectonic map was obtained.Considering SEISMIC pattern in area, potential SEISMIC sources were detected and modeled as volume sources. Using probabilistic method and choosing attenuation relationship, we obtained peak ground acceleration on bedrock in sites for exceedence probability 64%, 10% and 2% and life time 50 years.Considering four relatively HAZARD level, we zoned Ilam to four zones as high danger part, relatively high danger, intermediate and low SEISMIC HAZARD level.

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Journal: 

JOURNAL OF THE EARTH

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2010
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    57-65
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2899
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT is carried out for 48.5 - 51 oE and 33 – 36 N o including Markazi province (central province). To do this, seismotectonic map of the region has been provided by using geology maps 1:2500000, tectonic maps, satellite images, available reports, earthquake and minor earthquake catalogues. Five potential SEISMIC sources have been identified by analyzing geology, seismology and geophysics data in the studying area. At last, peak ground 10 iso-acceleration maps for return period have been displayed by probability method. Seisrisk III program in a network of dots with the distance of 0.1 degree has been utilized in SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT. SEISMIC zone map of Markazi province shows peak horizontal acceleration for 10% probability in 10 years is 0.2g. Markazi province can be divided into different zone with relative risk. The quietest zone is in west. There are regions in north with high relative risk around Indes, kushk Nosrat, Khoshk rud Fault. There is the same situation for a small zone in west north which is in east north of Dorud Fault.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2001
  • Volume: 

    3
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    1-12
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    811
  • Downloads: 

    210
Abstract: 

The purpose of this work is to evaluate the regional SEISMIC HAZARD for Morocco, following the deterministic approach proposed by Costa et al [1], based on the computation of complete P-SV and SH synthetic seismograms. The input for the computations is represented by source and structural models. SEISMIC sources are parameterized using the knowledge about past SEISMICity and the tectonic regime. The regional structural model we adopted is the one proposed by Cherkaoui [2], modified in its shallower part to account for the effects of the uppermost sedimentary layers. Maps of peak acceleration, velocity, and displacements are used for the general representation of the HAZARD. Accelerations are in good agreement with the values determined by Jimenez et al [3] with the standard probabilistic approach.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    13
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    133-150
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    39
  • Downloads: 

    51
Abstract: 

Badakhshan region, located in the northeast of Afghanistan, has a complex geology. A catalog from 2011-2021 was prepared using the data of the Middle Asia SEISMIC catalog with updates (1909-2011) from the website of the American Geological Survey. Considering the last earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 in 2015, the coefficients of b were calculated to the maximum value of 1.0 and the value of 7.9 on the surface and in the depth, the increase in the numerical values of a and b in the central half has been completely evident. The results indicated that the current trend is opposite to the direction of the main fault in North Badakhshan (north-south direction). The most frequent earthquakes M≥4 occurs at a depth of 150-70 km, earthquakes M≥5 at a depth of 150-300 km, and earthquakes ≥6 at a depth of 150-300 km occur in the east-west direction. This area is exactly where the Pamir Corridor plate meets the center of Badakhshan. This shows that at the end of the Pamir Corridor from east to west, ruptures are being created at depths of 0-150 km. Two east-west and east-south trends are evident. Regarding the shallow earthquakes related to the upper 50 km of the crust, the dominant mechanism is of the normal type, which indicates the stretching of the crust in this section. According to the deep mechanism of earthquakes, the direction of the tensile force is in the east-west direction. This issue further confirms the issue of continental collision and then subduction towards the south of Badakhshan. The innovation of this research is the identification of SEISMIC trends that have rarely been researched in the studied area, and its application is identifying high-risk areas for construction.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2025
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    1-11
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    6
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Probabilistic SEISMIC HAZARD analysis (PSHA) is a foundational element for determining design forces for new buildings and assessing the safety of existing structures. Consequently, decisions regarding the protection of urban infrastructures hinge on the outcomes of the PSHA. In recent years, numerous SEISMIC HAZARD analyses have been conducted in Tehran, often yielding significantly divergent results. Such discrepancies can mislead analysts and stakeholders involved in urban safety. This article investigates the primary causes of variability in HAZARD results and quantitatively expresses the uncertainty associated with these findings. To achieve this, the Cornell-McGuire approach for PSHA is employed. The study's results indicate that the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE or attenuation relationships), SEISMICity parameters(λ), and minimum magnitude(mmin) are critical factors contributing to this variability. Therefore, it is recommended that greater care be taken in selecting these parameters for PSHA conducted in Tehran.

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Author(s): 

BOUSTAN ELHAM | SHAFIEE ALI

Journal: 

JOURNAL OF THE EARTH

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    20
  • Pages: 

    0-0
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    320
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The study area encompassed by the 49.5o–54oE longitudes and 34o-37oN latitudes. The aim is to develop a model for SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT is based on employing fuzzy sest theory. To carry out SEISMIC HAZARD analysis in the framework of fuzzy sets theory, all of the variables converted into triangular fuzzy sets by using of MATLAB software. After applying different combination of them and extracting output in the framework of fuzzy, they became defuzzy by using surface center method. As a result, the HAZARD curve has been drawn for the site. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.35g and 0.12g for 475- and 50-years return periods, respectively.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    12
  • Issue: 

    38 (پیاپی4)
  • Pages: 

    53-74
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    105
  • Downloads: 

    24
Abstract: 

The Iranian Plateau is located along the active Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, which stretches from the Arabian plate in the southwest to the stable Eurasian shield in the northeast and is divided into different tectonic SEISMIC zones. Tehran province is SEISMICally active and has always been under threat due to the occurrence of earthquakes and the existence of many faults. Parand City is located in Tehran province and the SEISMIC state of central Iran. It is located in the zone with high and high SEISMICity in the HAZARD zoning map of the Iranian Code of Practice for SEISMIC Resistant design of buildings (Standard No.2800). So far, there has been no documented study in the field of SEISMIC risk analysis and ASSESSMENT of Parand city. In this regard, the SEISMIC risk ASSESSMENT of the new city of Parand was carried out. This evaluation was carried out by a probabilistic method in 4 basic steps, which include the study of tectonic earthquakes and modeling of SEISMIC springs, developing a SEISMICity model and obtaining SEISMIC parameters, choosing a reduction relationship or a model for estimating powerful earth movements and Probabilistic risk analysis of earthquakes. In this research, the values of β, λ, and the expected maximum acceleration, the maximum acceleration of the earth's strong movement for the return period of 475 years were obtained, which is equal to g0.33 in bedrock, which will be about g0.39 with the effect of soil effect. Based on the results of this research, Parand City is divided into four zones, the southern parts of the city have the lowest acceleration, and the northern parts have the highest acceleration.

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Author(s): 

ASADI A.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2014
  • Volume: 

    38
  • Issue: 

    A1
  • Pages: 

    35-41
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    348
  • Downloads: 

    259
Abstract: 

It is essential to use statistical models and theoretical analysis of the data for preparing comprehensive geological and SEISMIC HAZARD mapping. A cellular automaton consists of an array of cells, each one of which has a finite number of possible states, together with a rule for updating all cells simultaneously based only on the states of neighboring cells. In the present paper, Ising cellular automation modeling has been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the SEISMIC events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic SEISMIC HAZARD Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the wide range of Iran's geological and geophysical data and Iran catalogue from ISC and USGS from 1960 to 2009, (ISC and USGS).

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2010
  • Volume: 

    23
  • Issue: 

    1 (TRANSACTIONS B: APPLICATION)
  • Pages: 

    1-20
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    420
  • Downloads: 

    349
Abstract: 

A probabilistic SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT in terms of Arias intensity is presented for the city of Tehran. Tehran is the capital and the most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. Historical references indicate that the old city of Rey and the present Tehran have been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes at least 6 times. Existence of active faults like North of Tehran, Mosha and North and South of Rey is the main causes of SEISMICity of this city. SEISMICity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period, from 4th century BC to the present time are calculated using Tavakoli’s approach and Kijko method. The earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used to calculate SEISMICity parameters. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships are plotted. They display the probabilistic estimate of Arias intensity with Rock and Soil beds for the return periods of 72, 224, 475, 2475 years. SEISRISKIII software has been employed for SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT. Effects of different parameters such as SEISMICity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships, and attenuation relationships are considered using logic tree.

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